Bernie's Path to Victory in Milwaukee

Labor Day has come and past, it's time to pull out the backsides of envelopes and look at the Bernie campaign's path to victory. First and foremost it's not really about winning states (especially with Democratic races being proportionally awarded). It's not about the sliver of margin in this or that.

If we want Bernie to be president it's about getting one thing after the blood, sweat, and tears: a 50 percent plus one on a roll call vote at the national Democratic Convention.

This Convention will be a different beast from those of the past. Sure the spectacle and mind-numbing repetition of speeches and calculated enthusiasm of a major party convention will likely be the same. The core spectacle, electing the presidential nominee, is likely to be something we haven't seen for a very long time in this country. It is extremely likely for the first time since 1952 with Aldai Stevenson that there will be a “contested” (or “brokered”) convention.

Why?

Because its likely extrapolating from the current dynamics of this race—a faltering centrist frontrunner, our favorite democratic socialist in second (according to the largest, daily sampled poll), a rapidly gaining progressive in a close third (or in second if you work as a political reporter), a declining second tier of 2-5 candidates, etc—that no one candidate will hold more than a plurality of delegates in Milwaukee July 13, 2020. It's likely unless there is a major falter that at least three campaigns will hold substantive minorities along with a few qualifying other delegations.

Further due to the efforts of Our Revolution and other Bernie-aligned forces in the Democratic Party (no matter what you think of this politically) super-delegates have both been reduced and barred from voting in the first round making the free for all and jockeying of the next rounds even more likely. That's obviously not enough neither for checking this kind of undemocratic power (nor is it for overcoming the long institutional and structural issues of one of the the world's oldest capitalist parties) but it does alter our win scenarios for the better—for the first round.

DNC 2020 by the Numbers
All Pledged Delegates	3769
All Non-Pledged (Superdelegates)	766
Total Number of Delegates	4532

DNC Win Numbers
Win Number for the First Ballot	1887
Win Number Second and Following Ballots	2268

Top Four Delegate States
California	495
New York	270
Texas	262
Florida	248

Early Primary States Delegates
Iowa	49
New Hampshire	33
Nevada	48
South Carolina	63

What is a Contested Convention Anyway?

The Democratic Party presidential nominee is technically picked by a simple majority of delegates at the convention. This almost always is a tightly orchestrated affair with the result known well in advance. A contested convention is just that—a nomination contested right there on the floor of the convention.

When the presidential nomination question is called, a candidate needs a simple majority of the delegates eligible. Pledged delegates vote in line on the first ballot. If there is no conclusive vote (and again this is likely) things get very interesting.

After a non-conclusive vote the first-past-the-post good old American tradition drops and the parlimenary-like coalitioning and brokering beging. Voting continues round after round until a majority supports a candidate.

And with that cliffhanger, I will end it and return in a few days to talk about all the wonderful scenarios that could happen.